February 10, 1998 (TOKYO) -- The Japan Electronic Industry Development Association (JEIDA) on Feb. 3 lowered its estimate for domestic personal computer shipments in fiscal 1997.

In November 1997, JEIDA estimated 1997 domestic shipments at 7.5 million units, up 4 percent from the previous year.

According to JEIDA, domestic shipments for the third quarter of FY97 (October-December 1997) totaled 1,597,000 units, down 7 percent from the corresponding period the previous year. The total value of the shipments was 378.6 billion yen (US$3.05 billion), down 12 percent from a year earlier.

Of the various types of PCs, desktops, including servers, posted steep year-to-year declines of 23 percent in shipments and 26 percent in total value.

Shipments of notebook PCs, by comparison, expanded considerably, registering 25 percent year-on-year increases in shipments and 15 percent in total value. Sales of small, B5-sized notebook PCs weighing 2 kilograms or less were especially brisk, scoring sharp year-on-year increases of 46 percent in shipments and 44 percent in value.

Taking these figures into account, JEIDA revised downward its projection of domestic sales of PCs for all of FY97. If the association's negative growth projection turns out to be true, annual domestic sales of PCs will tumble for the first time in five years. The last time annual domestic sales of PCs posted a year-to-year decline was in 1992.

JEIDA cited two major reasons for the downward revision. Shrinking personal consumption is depressing sales of PCs for household use and businesses are refraining from investing in information-related projects and facilities.

Tetsuya Mizoguchi, head of JEIDA's personal computer promotion committee, is pessimistic about the PC market. "If the government implements an additional package of pump-priming measures toward the end of this fiscal year, there is a chance domestic shipments of PCs will grow slightly," he said. "But it would be difficult to radically change the current trend of sluggish PC sales."

Mizoguchi, however, is bullish about his outlook for FY98 (April 1998-March 1999). "The 1998 domestic shipments of PCs will probably grow by 10-15 percent from the current fiscal year," he said.

(BizTech Editorial Dept.)