(Nikkei BP Group)
(No.1 High-Tech News Site in Japanese)
| IBM VP Says Semiconductor Progress will Decelerate in 2001
September 22, 1998 (TOKYO) -- The speed of progress in semiconductor
technology will start decelerating in 2001, said Randall Isaac, IBM
Corp. vice president of technology and science.
|Isaac, who is in the IBM Research Division, is responsible for IBM's
research and development for semiconductor technologies. He depicted
the future of semiconductor technology in his address Sept. 17 at IBM's
Fair '98 held at the Makuhari Messe near Tokyo.
According to Isaac, the transistor density of microchips will quadruple
over the next three years, following Moore's law, the technology development
scale devised by Intel Corp. founder Gordon Moore.
A microprocessor that operates at 1GHz and a 1Gb dynamic random access
memory (DRAM) will be realized in 2001, Isaac said.
After 2001, however, the progress in semiconductor technology will decelerate
rapidly, Isaac said.
In 2010, the operating frequency of microprocessors will remain around
8GHz, and the capacity of DRAMs will remain at 8Gbits or so, Isaac said.
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